ND suffering some drought except in southeastern region

By SUE ROESLER, Farm & Ranch Guide
Friday, November 23, 2007 3:42 PM CST

Adnan Akyuz

Unless North Dakota receives above normal precipitation in the spring, drought conditions throughout most of the state will persist.

Adnan Akyuz, North Dakota State climatologist, said currently the only part of the state not experiencing any level of drought is the southeastern region. That would include Traill to Foster counties down and at the western edge, a small slice of Emmons County.

“The northern and western areas of the state have been abnormally dry,” Akyuz said. North central North Dakota is in the severe drought status, the worst drought region in the state.

“That severe drought has now migrated south to include northern Mercer County,” he added. “According to the climate prediction center, that north central drought is going to persist.”

For the last few years, farmers in the southwestern part of North Dakota were suffering the worst drought and crops were bringing poor to non-existent yields in some areas.

Currently, that portion of the state is only moderately dry, but Akyuz said that is still considered drought, but on a lower level.

“Parts of North Dakota are coming out of a long-standing drought,” Akyuz said. “Spring (2007) precipitation was really a blessing, but it only offered three weeks of relief.”

For a time, the state experienced two wildly varied events at the same time: the floods in the east along the Red River Valley and droughts in the west and central regions.

He explained there are three types of drought, making drought hard to define.

“Droughts are unlike any other events. There's no exact definition of a drought,” he said.

First there is a meteorological drought when the actual rainfall in an area is significantly less than the climatological average of that area. In other words, when there is a month to two months of a deficit in rainfall.

After three months of little to no rainfall, an agricultural drought sets in. This is the kind that affects producers, Akyuz said.

“Soil moisture is affected. Plants may get brown, leaves may curl,” he said.

If this kind of drought continues for three to 10 years, large lakes, streams, and rivers are impacted, he said.

“Levels in main rivers such as the Missouri get low,” he said. “That's a hydrological drought, and that's much harder to recover from.”

He said North Dakota has been in some kind of drought since 2002 up until this summer when there were no drought areas reported for a short time.

But after a few weeks, “we were right back in it,” Akyuz said.

The good news is the state has never been in an “exceptional” drought category since 2002, although the state has been in “extreme” drought conditions.

“This year we've never reached extreme drought - but we've been in the severe category in the north central region,” he said.

Current topsoil moisture supplies across the state were rated 14 percent very short, 37 short, and and 49 adequate.

Looking ahead to the forecast for this winter, Akyuz said North Dakota will experience colder than normal temperatures and more snow than normal.

That means a lot more work for cow-calf producers hauling hay out to pastures or trying to bring cows home.

Numerous events in the oceans can change the weather at any time, but for now the state's weather is controlled by LaNina. A LaNina means more precipitation than usual, he added.

To show how climatologists examine history for clues to weather forecasts, Akyuz checked for LaNinas in Fargo.

Checking through history, there were 32 LaNina events like the one Fargo is now experiencing. In 11 of those cases, Fargo had above normal temps in March while there were 10 events with below normal temperatures. From April to May, there were 25 LaNina events. Thirteen of those had below average temperatures, and only seven had above normal temps.

After the ground freezes, precipitation such as snow can't help subsoil moisture, and will run off in the spring, Akyuz said.

However, as of Nov. 14, there was no place in North Dakota that had freezing ground temperatures, he said.

That means any precipitation the state receives until freeze up will still help soil conditions. However, with colder temps, the air will get drier and moisture can easily evaporate, he added.

Producers can check a website each Thursday to find out the drought status of the region they are in.

For North Dakota, the address is http://drought.unl.edu/dm/DM_state.

htm?ND,HP. 

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